EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. –
With Tropical Storm Andrea kicking off the 2013 hurricane season already, Team Eglin members should prepare for what experts are predicting will be an active hurricane season.
According to a recent advisory issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially opened June 1, and coastal residents in the U.S. should gear up now to ensure they're prepared.
The NHC is predicting the Atlantic hurricane season to have a 70 percent chance of being an "above-normal" season. NHC forecasters predict the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will have 13 to 20 named storms. Of these, seven to 11 could become hurricanes and three to six of these could become Category 3 or higher major hurricanes. This contrasts with an "average" Atlantic hurricane season, which brings 12 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. A major storm has sustained winds that exceed 111 mph.
That advisory is being taken seriously by Eglin's leadership and weather forecasters.
"They are the experts," said Master Sgt. Timothy Henry, flight chief of 96th Weather Flight. "We look at their predictions and tailor them to our local situation."
The 96th Weather Flight forecasters monitor local weather conditions year round to keep base leadership informed regarding atmospheric conditions that could impact Eglin-based operations. This watch becomes particularly important during the six-month hurricane season because of the severe weather conditions generated by a hurricane and the challenges associated with tracking the paths of these storms as well as the peripheral effects.
"There are a lot of things that go into the formation of a tropical storm and the damage it may cause," said Henry. "We analyze the information and provide it to senior base leadership for them to make an educated decision."
A hurricane is a severe tropical storm, that forms in the southern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or in the eastern Pacific Ocean between June 1 and November 30. The Eastern Pacific season runs from May 15 through the end of November. Hurricanes need warm tropical oceans, moisture and light winds above them. If the right conditions last long enough, a hurricane can form producing violent winds, large waves, and torrential rains.
While each season's hurricane forecast varies, people should prepare themselves for hurricane season regardless of the forecast's severity.
"Dozens of hurricanes could form this season and never touch land, but it only takes one. Thus everyone needs to take stock and prepare now to ensure their unit and family readiness in case we are required to secure the base or evacuate", Col. Michael Contratto, 96th Test Wing vice commander, said.
Being prepared is important due to a hurricane's destructive nature. A hurricane's strong winds, heavy rainfall, tornadoes and storm surge can wreak havoc both in coastal areas and further inland. The combination of the elements is the recipe for extreme damage to buildings, trees and cars.
The sustained winds associated with a hurricane can blow out glass windows, uproot trees, take out power lines and remove roofs from houses. Wind speeds of more than 58 mph (50 knots) are likely to cause damage. A tropical storm typically has sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph, while a hurricane has sustained winds more than 73 mph. These winds are strongest near the storm's center or "eye."
As the storm approaches landfall, it can also spawn tornadoes. Although these tornadoes are not as strong as Midwestern tornadoes, they're still deadly. During Hurricane Opal in 1995, one person was killed when a tornado hit Crestview.
If high winds and the possibility of a tornado wasn't enough, heavy rain and flooding are also serious threats, even in weaker storms. A weak, slow moving tropical storm can produce 10 to 15 inches of rain. In the past 30 years, 60 percent of hurricane deaths were due to flooding. Heavy rains can start many hours before a storm hits land.
Hurricane Georges, in September 1998, proved that. Although Eglin did not experience sustained hurricane force winds, this storm dumped 24.24 inches of rain during the storm. This storm also set the base's 24-hour rainfall record at 9.6 inches. Roads in the area were flooded and Crestview was cut off, when the Yellow and Shoal Rivers flooded.
Storm surge is another hazard associated with hurricanes that impacts people living near bodies of water. Storm surge occurs when strong winds push the ocean to form a wall of water. The storm surge may combine with astronomical tides to produce an even higher water level. A strong storm can easily raise the water level 15 feet above normal. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 produced a record 27.8-foot surge on the Mississippi coast.
Saying goodbye to Andrea, the 96th WF will be looking to the tropics for the next storm to form, keeping a lookout for Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy throughout the 2013 hurricane season.