FORT EUSTIS, Va. –
The 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season is June 1 through Nov. 30. In their annual report on hurricane predications released April 7, Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project hurricane forecasters Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach predict an above-average season, possibly ranking among the top 10 most active years on record.
In their report, the team states weakening El Niño conditions in late summer and warmer-than-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures "will [lead] to favorable...conditions for hurricane development and intensification."
From this, the formation of 15 named storms is expected. Eight of these are expected to be hurricanes and four to develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 through 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale. Accuweather.com Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi expressed his concern for the upcoming storm season in an April 8 Accuweather.com report.
"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."
The 2005 season was the most active in recorded history, with more than 3,800 deaths and record damages of about $130 billion. A record 27 tropical and subtropical storms formed. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes and of these seven strengthened into major hurricanes, with five Category 4 hurricanes and four Category 5.
Since record-keeping began, only three Category 5 storms have made landfall in the U.S.: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Andrew (1992).
The 2005 season also spawned the costliest and the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record, Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma, respectively. Hurricane Katrina left behind more than $81.2 billion in damages and was one of the deadliest storms since the Okeechobee Hurricane (1928), causing the deaths of more than 1,830 people. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 remains history's deadliest storm with 6,000 to 11,000 dead.
Although Hurricane Wilma was a Category 3 storm when it made landfall in southern Florida, it is one of the most intense storms in recorded history with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and spawning 10 tornadoes in Florida, causing at least 35 deaths.
So many storms developed from June through November 2005, the list of 21 storm names was exhausted and experts had to revert to the Greek alphabet for storms 22 through 27.
Because of the predictions for the 2010 season, the National Hurricane Center declared Monday through tomorrow as 2010 Hurricane Preparedness Week. In order to be fully prepared, it is important to understand hurricane terminology, categories of hurricanes, and the hazards of hurricanes and flooding, storm surges and high winds.
Hurricane (also called a typhoon)
A warm-core tropical storm system with sustained winds of at least 74 mph.; typically, an eye - an area of relative calm and lowest atmospheric pressure - has developed at the center and is visible in satellite images as a small, circular, cloud-free spot. Maximum sustained winds recorded at 195 mph.
Hurricane Eye
The calm area in the center of a hurricane
Hurricane Warning
Sustained winds of at least 74 mph predicted for a designated area of the coastline within 24 hours. Residents should complete disaster action plans and seek shelter in the safest location
Hurricane Watch
A designated coastal area may experience hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Families should enact their disaster action plan and begin to secure homes, vehicles and boats. Residents on barrier islands should consider evacuating.
Flooding
Tropical winds and torrential rain brought on by the storm may induce inland flooding as far inland as three to five miles. The potential for flooding is the same for all storm categories, as evidenced by Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in southeast Texas. In a five-day period, Allison dropped more than 3 feet of rain in the Houston area.
There are various types of flood dangers to be aware of in a storm:
Flash Floods
These can build up in few minutes or hours of torrential rainfall. Rapidly rising water can reach heights of more than 30 feet and can uproot trees and destroy buildings and bridges.
River Floods
River flooding occurs when runoff from torrential rains enters rivers. Many times this results in a flash flood. Like a flash flood, river flooding occurs rapidly and can last a week or longer. In central Tennessee earlier this month, the Cumberland River crested at more than 51 feet, displacing 1,500 to 2,000 people and killing 10.
Urban/Area Floods
Rapid events although not as severe as flash flooding. During these floods, streets can become swift-moving rivers and basements can become death traps as they fill with water. The primary cause is due to the conversion of fields or woodlands to roads and parking lots. Heavy rains brought on record-breaking urban flooding in Hampton Roads and Richmond in November 2009.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
The scale was originally developed in 1969 by Herbert Saffir, a structural engineer who wanted to estimate the damage of approaching hurricanes. In the mid-1970s, Robert Simpson, then-director of the National Hurricane Center, expanded the scale to include storm surge and flooding.
Since its inception, the scale is used to estimate the potential of flooding and damage to property. Based on a hurricane's estimated strength, wind intensity and storm surge, hurricanes are assigned one of five categories. Beginning this season, the scale is renamed the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and updated to better reflect damage potential and coastal development.
Storm Surge
Water pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm
Tropical Depression
An organized storm system of clouds and thunderstorms with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, the storm has no eye and is not spiral in shape; referred to as a depression because it is a low-pressure system.
Tropical Storm
A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with maximum sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph. An eye is not usually present and a spiral shape is beginning to form.
Wind Gusts and Squalls
Wind gusts are short rapid bursts in wind speed. Squalls are longer periods of increased wind speeds.
Hurricanes bring several hazards including high winds, flying debris and flooding, and are known to spawn tornadoes. Because hurricane season is upon us, it is important to be informed, aware and prepared.
More information about tropical systems and hurricanes is available at www.nhc.noaa.gov, www.accuweather.com or www.weather.com.
For more information about disaster preparedness, contact the Fort Eustis Red Cross office at 878-3339/3168 or the Langley Red Cross office at 225-4060.
More information is also available on the Ready Army Web site at www.acsim.army.mil/readyarmy and www.fema.gov.